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WED · JUN 03, 2026
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Saturday Evening Geopolitical Musings · LEVEL A

As Russia bleeds men and obsesses over births, the war begins to look less like madness than demographic strategy.

Extra, Extra Extras!

Martin Luther King, Inc.: the Splc's Trademarked Legacy

Financial Alert
Morris Dees sold his direct-mail cookbook and agricultural-publishing business in 1969 for six milli…
Data Point
In 1972, while serving as finance director for George McGovern's presidential campaign, Dees obtaine…
Official Seal
In 1971, Dees added white Alabama lawyer Charles F. Abernathy and Julian Bond to the SPLC letterhead…
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Staff Eat Notes

Stack & Pour in Nashville only got 61. They said it's because they're mixed. I asked The Rustic Spoon in Austin what they thought. The spoon replied, "We're 94. We don't mix with 61. We separate the truth like eggs."

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G&CPending DocketFull docket →
No. 23-477·6th Cir.·Argued Dec. 4, 202414th AmendmentEqual ProtectionSex DiscriminationOT2024

United States v. Skrmetti

United States; L.W. (minor) v. Jonathan Skrmetti, AG of Tennessee
Question Presented

Whether Tennessee's law prohibiting gender-affirming medical care for minors constitutes sex discrimination under the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.

Background

Tennessee's SB 1 bans puberty blockers and hormone therapy for minors when used for gender-affirming purposes, while permitting the same drugs for other medical uses. The United States and private plaintiffs argue the law facially classifies by sex — a minor's access to a drug depends on the sex assigned at birth.

Why It Matters

Over 20 states have enacted similar bans. The decision will set the constitutional standard governing gender-affirming care restrictions nationwide, touching both equal protection doctrine and the emerging scope of sex-based classifications post-Bostock.

Applicable Law
U.S. Const. amend. XIV § 142 U.S.C. § 18116
Key Precedents
Bostock v. Clayton County(2020)

Held that discrimination 'because of sex' under Title VII includes gender identity; central to the facial sex-classification argument.

United States v. Virginia(1996)

Established 'exceedingly persuasive justification' standard for sex-based classifications.

Washington v. Glucksberg(1997)

Framework for unenumerated rights under substantive due process; relevant to liberty-based alternative arguments.

Merit Profile — Signal Array
J1.00F1.00C0.95I0.72S0.82
Weighted Variables — M = (J×F) × [S·0.45 + C·0.40 + I·0.15]
JJusticiabilitygate
1.00
FFederal Questiongate
1.00
SCircuit Split×0.45
0.82
CConstitutional Significance×0.40
0.95
ILower Court Error×0.15
0.72
Merit Signal
86%
TIER II
Predicted Outcome
6-3
Skrmetti / Tennessee prevails
Confidence
71%
Justice Alignment — majority dissent
RO
Rober
TH
Thoma
AL
Alito
SO
Sotom
KA
Kagan
GO
Gorsu
KA
Kavan
BA
Barre
JA
Jacks

ACQ · Analysis & Consequence Quarterly

Vol. 2 — Coming Q3 2026
Next Issue
Vol. 2
Q3 2026
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